greg linden, a very smart search expert whose voice
i respect, forecasts, direly, a tech recession in
2008. ymmv, and while i do not endorse the message
(nor do i deny its potential veracity), it is quite
big excerpt here:
The coming 2008 dotcom crash
"Venture capital firms will seek to limit their losses by
forcing many of their portfolio companies to liquidate or
seek a buyout. Buyout prospects will be poor, however, as
the cash rich companies find themselves in a buyers market
and let those seeking a savior come face-to-face with the
spectre of bankruptcy before finally buying up the assets
on the cheap.
"Startups that managed to get cash before the bubble collapses
will have a cash horde, but will find little opportunity to rest
on it. Most startups will find their revenue models were
unrealistic and will rapidly have to seek change. Many will jump
over to advertising, but the advertising market will have
constricted. Bigger businesses seek to drive out the new entrants,
and online advertising will become a cutthroat business with
little profits to be found. Others startups may shift toward
licensing and development deals for bigger companies, but will
find their investors impatient now that the promised $500M startup
has become a $10M company.
"The big players will not be immune from this contagion. Google,
in particular, will find its one-trick pony lame, with the
advertising market suddenly stagnant or contracting and
substantial new competition. The desperate competition with
dwindling opportunity will drive profits in online advertising
to near zero. Google and Yahoo will find their available cash
dropping and will do substantial layoffs.
"Unfortunately, this scenario has privacy implications as well.
Much like we saw after the 2000 crash, it is likely that those
with little to lose will attempt scary new forms of advertising.
The Web will become polluted with spyware, intrusiveness, and
horrible annoyances. None of this will work, of course, and there
will be lawsuits and new privacy legislation, but we will have to
endure it while it lasts."